A total of 519 individuals registered for the Equinox Marathon (330), Ultramarathon (34) and Relay (155) through the earlybird registration period ending at midnight last night.
Comparisons of this year's RAW numbers with those from last year's 50th running of the event are not particularly informative - last year participation increased by 35% from the prior year (2011) and by 42% from the average of the previous five years (2007=825, 2008=851, 2009=899, 2010=907, 2011=925).
Because participation increased so dramatically last year due to it being the 50th running, we projected a 20%-30% decrease in participation from last year to this year. We believe that was a prudent number to use for budget planning, etc.
At the same point in the registration cycle last year (one month prior to the race) 604 people had registered (403 marathon, 23 ultra, 178 relay). That's 85 people more than have registered this year. That sounds like a lot.
On the other hand, our registration one month out from the race is only down 14% from last year -- so we are quite a bit ahead of the registration numbers we anticipated this year. A 20%-30% dropoff would have meant only having 420-480 people registered at this point. We are well ahead of that number.
Last year, one-month out total was 48% of the final total registration. If 519 proves to be 48% of the final total for this year, that would yield a total participation of 1075 - that would be the second-highest total in the past 40 years (second only to last year).
It is impossible to predict how many will register between now and race day. However, we are very happy that we are off to such a good start for the 2013 event.